She is building stamina through tough new workouts with a personal trainer and yoga. She is talking about how to address income inequality without alienating corporate America. And she is reviewing who’s who in the Democratic Party in Iowa, a crucial early voting state in the presidential cycle.
Hillary Rodham Clinton has said publicly that she will decide early next year whether she will undertake a second campaign for the presidency. But inside the Clinton operation, the groundwork is already quietly being laid for a candidacy.
On Sunday, Mrs. Clinton will appear at the 37th annual Iowa steak fry hosted by Senator Tom Harkin; it will be her most overtly political appearance since resigning as secretary of state in February of last year.
Meanwhile, the largest Democratic fund-raising group, Priorities USA, which helped get President Obama elected, recently rebranded itself as a vehicle to help Mrs. Clinton. Publicly, the group says it is focused on raising money for Democrats for this fall’s congressional elections, but privately, Priorities has already started reaching out to donors to secure 2016 commitments for Mrs. Clinton.
“It’s very obvious what’s she going to do,” said Sue Dvorsky, a former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party. “Clearly she’s going to run.”
Of course, the former first lady can always decide to take a pass on a campaign. Before the 2004 presidential election, former Vice President Al Gore crisscrossed the country to promote his books, delivered speeches and even poked fun at himself on “Saturday Night Live,” leading to assumptions that he would seek to unseat President George W. Bush. But in December 2002, Mr. Gore declared that he would not run.
But Mr. Gore did not have a groundswell of support within the Democratic Party and had run into potential problems raising money. (There was no “Ready for Al” group signing up supporters.) And, back then, the Democratic Party had a larger field of other viable candidates including Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts and Senator John Edwards of North Carolina.
The signs pointing to Mrs. Clinton running are big and small.
Lately, when supporters wish her good luck in the 2016 presidential campaign, she responds with a simple “Thank you,” rather than explain that there is no campaign and that she has not yet decided whether she will run, as she did previously.
Priorities has held informational meetings with donors like Bernard L. Schwartz, a New York investor, and J. B. Pritzker, a Chicago-based philanthropist, to discuss a 2016 strategy and how much money will be needed to take on Republican super PACs.
At the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation, an intense period of fund-raising is underway, which is widely seen as an effort to build up the family’s charitable operation now, because a presidential campaign would soon interfere with philanthropic activities. A foundation fund-raiser the Clintons threw in the Hamptons in August cost as much as $50,000 per couple to attend.
Last month, Chelsea Clinton resigned from NBC News after less than three years as a special correspondent. In a Facebook message, Ms. Clinton said she stepped down “to continue focusing on my work at the Clinton Foundation” and as she and her husband, Marc Mezvinsky, expect their first child. But she would have likely had to step back from that job should her mother embark on a presidential campaign.
These days Mrs. Clinton’s mind seems to drift to Iowa, as she has been casually asking friends about who’s who in the state’s Democratic Party, said two people who could discuss private conversations only anonymously.
On Sunday, Mrs. Clinton will make her first trip back to Iowa since early 2008, when she came in third in the heated Democratic caucus behind Mr. Obama, then a senator from Illinois, and Mr. Edwards. Mr. and Mrs. Clinton will both attend the steak fry, a fund-raiser in Indianola known as a must-stop for potential presidential candidates.
It has long been an opportunity for presidential candidates “to get out there and dip your toe in the water and introduce yourself to a lot of active Democrats,” said Scott M. Brennan, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. (He added that the Clintons were attending to help Democrats in 2014 and to pay tribute to Mr. Harkin, who is retiring from the Senate.)
Back in New York and Washington, Mrs. Clinton has a packed schedule this month to raise money for Democratic candidates; she headlined a reception Friday to benefit the Democratic Governors Association that cost $10,000 to attend. Mr. and Mrs. Clinton are not slowing down on delivering paid speeches, at around $200,000 each. A presidential campaign would limit those opportunities to make money.
Mrs. Clinton is getting in better physical shape, a necessity for any potential candidate who faces the rigors of the campaign trail. Friends said she has more energy and has also been practicing yoga.
A spokesman for Mrs. Clinton dismissed any suggestion that the former secretary of state is preparing to run. “You caught us,” said Nick Merrill, a spokesman for Mrs. Clinton. “These are all definitive signs of a person” who is “simply living their life.”
Mrs. Clinton spent August in the Hamptons, a working vacation that gave her plenty of time to interact with donors without the glare of the news media. Liz Robbins, a Washington lobbyist with a home in East Hampton; the investor Dan Neidich and his wife, Brooke Garber Neidich, an arts executive; the hedge fund manager Richard C. Perry and his wife, Lisa Perry, a fashion designer; and Susie Tompkins Buell, a San Francisco-based entrepreneur, are among the friends and donors who hosted events for the Clintons.
Amid the small talk, Mrs. Clinton would offer telltale signs that she intends to run, said several people who crossed paths with the former first lady on the shores of Long Island.
She would pose political questions and field thoughts on policy, asking, for example, Wall Street executives and business leaders what they thought of Mr. Obama’s efforts to eliminate inversions.
Mrs. Clinton has a small personal staff that she recently relocated to New York to be closer to her office at the Clinton Foundation. Several aides who worked on Mrs. Clinton’s 2008 campaign, and hope to work for her again, often discuss logistics like where a campaign headquarters would be located, with New York State and Little Rock, Ark., floated as options.
Fledgling efforts to develop a message are quietly taking place, said the people close to Mrs. Clinton. Without discussing her 2016 plans, she has talked to friends and donors in business about how to tackle income inequality without alienating businesses or castigating the wealthy.
That message would likely be less populist and more pro-growth, less about inversions and more about corporate tax reform, less about raising the minimum wage and more long-term job creation, said two people with firsthand knowledge of the discussions. (A person close to Mrs. Clinton said that she often seeks advice from people in various fields, and that those conversations have nothing to do with planning a campaign.)
Until Mrs. Clinton officially declares, she is having some fun with the breathless speculation. In an online birthday message to Mr. Clinton, she discusses a possible birthday gift with Kevin Spacey, in character as the scheming President Francis Underwood on the Netflix drama “House of Cards.”
Mr. Spacey proposes an elephant, like the ones Mrs. Clinton works to save at the Clinton Foundation. “I told you,” she responds, “this is a very personal decision that I will make when I’m ready.”
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