http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/08/15/quinn-frontrunner-in-mayoral-primary-poll/
New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is the clear frontrunner in the 2013 Democratic primary for mayor, with 29% of Democrats saying they would vote for her, a poll released Wednesday showed.
Quinn, a Manhattan Democrat who aspires to become the city’s first female and openly gay mayor, has nearly triple the number of votes as her nearest competitor in the budding race to succeed Mayor Michael Bloomberg, according to the latest survey from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The poll showed three of Quinn’s potential competitors are locked in a tight race for second place: Former City Comptroller Bill Thompson, with 10%; City Comptroller John Liu, 9%; and Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, 9%.
In the bottom tier are Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, at 4%, and media executive Tom Allon, 1%.
Roughly one third of Democratic voters said they are undecided, a clear sign that the race remains wide open. But Quinn’s polling strength, coupled with her lead in fundraising, gives her an early advantage as the race prepares to pick up steam following the presidential election.
The Democratic mayoral nominee has lost the last five races, but party officials are hopeful they will break the losing streak next year, especially given the Republicans’ difficulty thus far identifying a potential nominee. GOP leaders, who are in the midst of interviewing possible candidates, have pledged to mount a serious, competitive challenge next year.
The primary is scheduled for Sept. 10, 2013, but some election officials are looking to move that date up to June. To win the primary, a candidate must receive 40% of the vote; otherwise, a runoff election is held two weeks later between the top two vote getters. The general election is Nov. 5, 2013, and the winner will begin a four-year term on New Year’s Day 2014.
Quinn’s frontrunner status places her in the cross hairs, and her high-profile position as the council’s leader, the second most powerful office in city government, places unique pressures on her that could be helpful to her rivals.
For example, for nearly two years now, Quinn has blocked a proposal to require city employers to provide paid sick leave for workers, and advocates connected to the liberal wing of the party recently began an intense campaign to convince Quinn that her position on this issue will complicate her hopes of winning the Democratic primary.
Quinn’s predecessors as council speaker, Peter Vallone Sr. and Gifford Miller, both attempted unsuccessfully to move from City Hall’s east wing, where the council presides, to the west wing, home of the mayor’s office.
One key unknown in the race is the political strength of Liu, who became the first Asian-American to be elected to citywide office in 2009. Liu’s political future dimmed during the past year after his campaign treasurer and a top fundraiser were arrested and indicted on charges of funneling illegal contributions to the comptroller’s 2013 campaign. Both have pleaded not guilty, and Liu, who has not been charged, has denied any wrongdoing.
Some political observers have said Liu has little chance of becoming mayor, but supporters of the comptroller have said he’s determined to run next year.
Quinnipiac’s poll examined a number of potential voter biases that could shed some light on the mayoral race. For example, 14% of city voters said they are more likely to vote for a woman, while 84% said gender wouldn’t matter. One percent of voters said they are less likely to vote for a woman.
The poll also showed that 10% of city voters are less likely to vote for a gay or lesbian candidate, while 84% said sexual orientation wouldn’t matter.
In a look at other biases, 30% of city voters said they would be less likely to vote for an atheist and 27% said they would be less likely to vote for a born-again Christian. Nearly a quarter said they would be less likely to vote for Mormon, and 19% said they would be less likely to vote for a Muslim.
Among the city’s top elected officials, Quinn maintains the highest job approval rating, with 56% rating her performance positively. Bloomberg’s job-approval rating, 51%, remained virtually unchanged during the past few months. De Blasio’s job-approval rating was 45%; Liu, 43%.
The poll also showed voters agree with Bloomberg’s position on the recent Chick-fil-A controversy. A number of elected officials nationwide, including the mayors of Boston, Chicago and San Francisco, have publicly demanded that the restaurant chain stay out of their city because of the company president’s opposition to same-sex marriage. (In New York, Quinn shared that view.)
But Bloomberg has said government should not interfere in a business’ efforts to get permits because of the owner’s personal opinions. In the poll, 83% of city voters said elected officials should not try to discourage people from patronizing Chick-fil-A, and 82% said there should be no impact on the company’s ability to get permits.